EIA warns OECD oil stocks set for record low by December

Global oil stockpiles in developed economies are on track to fall to their lowest level since 2003, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday, as the Iran war has eliminated nearly 11 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern output from world markets.

The EIA projects Brent crude will average $105 a barrel in June and July 2026, as OECD inventories approach levels not recorded since the agency began keeping those figures more than two decades ago, The Korea Times reported.

OECD oil stockpiles are expected to drop to just under 2.3 billion barrels by December 2026, according to the EIA's Tuesday report as cited by The Korea Times. The agency said that figure would mark the lowest inventory level since it began compiling OECD data in 2003.

The primary driver is the Iran war, which has shuttered 11 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern production. The Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint handling 20% of global oil shipments — continues to see marine traffic below pre-conflict levels, constraining the world's ability to rebuild supply.

Diplomatic efforts to restore access have stalled. "As of this writing, the agreement has not been finalized. Most oil production in the region remains shut-in, and global oil inventories have continued to fall to meet demand," the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

On the demand side, the EIA now forecasts global oil consumption will shrink by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026 — a sharp reversal of an earlier projection for a 200,000-barrel-per-day increase. It would mark the first annual demand decline since the pandemic-related slump in 2020.

Brent crude futures stood at $91.60 a barrel at the time of Tuesday's report. The EIA projects that figure will climb to a June-July average near $105 a barrel. "Because of the size of the drawdown in global inventories, we forecast that oil prices will remain elevated until global oil flows return to normal levels and oil inventories are replenished," the agency said.

The EIA's projections make clear that energy market stability remains tied to the pace of diplomatic progress on the Iran conflict and the resumption of normal shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz.