Dixon leads incumbent Foley by 2 points in OC supervisor race

Republican Assemblywoman Diane Dixon held a narrow 48% to 46% lead over Orange County Supervisor Katrina Foley Thursday as vote counting continued in the Fifth District supervisory race, with the outcome hinging on whether either candidate can surpass the 50% threshold needed to avoid a November runoff.

A Dixon victory would hand Republicans their first Board of Supervisors majority in four years, making the Fifth District contest — covering South Orange County and its coastal communities — one of the most consequential local races on the ballot this cycle.

Dixon surged past Foley in ballot updates released during late Wednesday and into Thursday, according to Voice of OC. As of Wednesday, roughly 270,000 ballots remained to be processed by the Orange County Registrar, leaving the final outcome in flux.

Under California election rules, a candidate who clears 50% of the primary vote wins the seat outright. If neither Dixon nor Foley reaches that mark, the two will advance to a November runoff election.

The Fifth District carries a 5% Republican voter registration advantage — structural terrain that has aided Dixon throughout the campaign. Were Foley to fall short, Democrats would lose control of the Board of Supervisors for the first time in four years.

Before any votes were tallied, Foley projected confidence at the board's May 19 meeting. "I will look forward to when the election is over. The reality is, I'm for sure winning the primary, it's a matter of whether we win outright or move onto the general," she said, according to Voice of OC.

On the spending front, labor unions backed Foley heavily: the Orange County Association of Deputy Sheriffs, Orange County Professional Firefighters Association and Orange County Employees Association combined to spend $812,000 in her support. The conservative Lincoln Club spent $306,000 targeting Foley's candidacy, Voice of OC reported.

Foley has represented the Fifth District since winning the seat in 2022. The Orange County Registrar is expected to release additional ballot updates in the coming days as the remaining votes are processed.