Becerra leads California governor poll; Hilton, Steyer fight for second spot

Former U.S. Attorney General Xavier Becerra leads California's gubernatorial primary at 25%, according to a Berkeley-LA Times poll released Thursday, with Republican Steve Hilton at 21% and billionaire Tom Steyer at 19% locked in a tight contest for the second runoff position.

California's top-two primary rules send only two candidates to the November general election, making the battle for second place as consequential as the race for first — and with the field still unsettled weeks before voters go to the polls, the outcome remains wide open.

A Berkeley-LA Times poll of likely California voters shows Becerra with a 4-point advantage over Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton, according to ABC7 Los Angeles. Steyer, a billionaire climate investor, sits just two points behind Hilton in third — close enough to keep the race for the second runoff spot genuinely competitive.

The survey also recorded notable movement lower in the field. Former Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco fell from 16% to 11% compared to a March poll, while Rep. Katie Porter dropped from 13% to 7%, ABC7 Los Angeles reported.

Steyer has poured more than $216 million of his personal fortune into the campaign, yet has recently aimed attacks at Becerra rather than Hilton — a tactical choice that drew scrutiny from political analysts. "It's interesting to me that Steyer is spending so much attention going after Becerra right now when there might be an argument for him training his fire on Hilton, because that's really who he needs to pass to get to the next round," said Jim Newton, a professor of public policy at UCLA.

On the Republican side, Hilton has sought an endorsement from Bianco in an effort to consolidate conservative support behind a single candidate. Newton offered a measured read on the GOP's broader prospects in the state. "Californians are pretty clear that they are not interested in a Republican vision for California," he said.

Newton pointed to the national political climate as an additional drag on any Republican contender. "The macro-environment here is one in which Californians are so repelled by Trump that it just hurts anyone associated with him on a California ballot," he told ABC7 Los Angeles.

With only two runoff spots available and the primary fast approaching, even small polling shifts in the coming weeks could reshuffle which candidates California voters see on the November general election ballot.