Army sergeant pleads not guilty to prediction market insider trading

A U.S. Army Special Forces master sergeant entered a not guilty plea Tuesday to five federal counts alleging he tapped classified military intelligence about a planned Venezuela raid to win about $400,000 on an online prediction market.

The prosecution marks the first time the Justice Department has brought insider trading charges tied to a prediction market — platforms that allow real-money bets on geopolitical events — setting a legal precedent for a rapidly growing industry.

Gannon Van Dyke, 38, a master sergeant stationed at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, appeared before U.S. District Judge Margaret Garnett in Manhattan and entered not guilty pleas to five counts — including unlawful use of confidential government information, commodities fraud and wire fraud — according to the Korea Times, citing Reuters.

Prosecutors allege Van Dyke placed $33,000 in bets on the prediction platform Polymarket between Dec. 27, 2025, and Jan. 2, 2026, wagering that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would be removed from power and that U.S. forces would enter Venezuela. A military raid the following day, Jan. 3, resulted in Maduro's capture along with his wife, Cilia Flores, the Korea Times reported.

As a Special Forces soldier involved in planning and executing the operation, Van Dyke allegedly had access to nonpublic military information he used to guide his bets. Polymarket flagged the unusual trading activity and cooperated with investigators, according to Reuters. A rival platform, Kalshi, had already blocked Van Dyke from opening an account after he failed its identity-verification process.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed parallel civil charges against Van Dyke. He was released on $250,000 bond following an initial appearance before U.S. Magistrate Judge Brian Meyers in Raleigh, North Carolina, the Korea Times reported.

Attorneys Zach Intrater and Mark Geragos are representing Van Dyke.

No trial date has been set. The CFTC's civil action runs parallel to the federal criminal case, according to Reuters, leaving Van Dyke facing potential penalties on two separate legal fronts.