US soldier charged with using classified intel on Maduro raid to win $400k bet

A U.S. Army Special Forces soldier faces five federal charges for allegedly drawing on classified information about an operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to place prediction-market bets and collect more than $400,000 in winnings.

The case shines a harsh light on prediction markets' vulnerability to insider abuse at a moment when the industry is expanding rapidly — and when the Trump administration, whose eldest son holds a financial stake in one of the leading platforms, has publicly backed the sector's growth.

Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, a Special Forces soldier stationed at Fort Bragg, N.C., is due in federal court in New York on Tuesday, according to ABC7 Los Angeles. Federal authorities said Van Dyke participated directly in the planning and execution of the Maduro capture operation and had signed nondisclosure agreements tied specifically to those missions.

Prosecutors charged Van Dyke with five counts: unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud and unlawful monetary transaction. Court filings state the bets were placed on a contract asking whether Maduro would be out of power by Jan. 31, according to ABC7 Los Angeles.

Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction platform, flagged Van Dyke's trading activity through its own compliance systems and reported the matter to authorities, ABC7 Los Angeles reported. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan cooperated with the investigation. Van Dyke was granted bond following an initial hearing in North Carolina last week before the case was transferred to New York.

The arrest lands as prediction markets face mounting scrutiny over whether intelligence or political foreknowledge constitutes the type of material nonpublic information that financial laws are designed to prohibit. Donald Trump Jr. serves as an adviser to both Polymarket and rival platform Kalshi and holds a stake in Polymarket. Trump's social media platform, Truth Social, is separately preparing to launch its own prediction market called Truth Predict, according to ABC7 Los Angeles.

Van Dyke is scheduled to appear in federal court in New York on Tuesday. If convicted on all five counts, he faces the prospect of substantial prison time.