Trump says Iran deal in final stages, threatens military action

President Trump declared Wednesday that U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations have reached their "final stages," warning of military strikes against Tehran if talks collapse six weeks after the Operation Epic Fury ceasefire began.

The stakes extend well beyond the region — Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered what energy analysts call the largest disruption to global oil supplies in history, with benchmark Brent crude trading above $105 a barrel and gas prices squeezing Southern California households.

Trump told reporters Wednesday the two sides must either reach an agreement or face consequences. "We're in the final stages of Iran. We'll see what happens. Either have a deal or we're going to do some things that are a little bit nasty, but hopefully that won't happen. Ideally I'd like to see few people killed, as opposed to a lot. We can do it either way," he said. Speaking the same day at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy, Trump added: "We may have to hit them very hard ... but maybe not." He claimed he came within an hour of ordering new military strikes against Iran earlier this week before standing down.

Iran responded with escalating warnings. The Revolutionary Guards issued a statement declaring: "If aggression against Iran is repeated, the promised regional war will extend beyond the region this time." Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei struck a more measured tone in a separate statement: "Despite the negative record of the other side over the past year and a half, Iran is pursuing the path of negotiations with seriousness and good faith, but it has strong and reasonable suspicion over America's performance."

Talks are proceeding through Pakistani mediation, with Pakistan's interior minister leading the latest round in Tehran. Iran has demanded Strait of Hormuz control, war compensation, full sanctions relief, the release of frozen assets and a withdrawal of U.S. troops as conditions for any deal. Washington has maintained a blockade of Iranian ports since Tehran closed the waterway, a standoff that has paralyzed global shipping.

Vessel traffic through the strait remains far below pre-war levels. Lloyd's List reported 54 ships transited the chokepoint last week — roughly double the prior week — but a fraction of the 140 daily crossings recorded before Operation Epic Fury. Iran said 26 ships crossed in a single 24-hour period under its new access rules. Two Chinese tankers carrying four million barrels of oil completed transits last week, and South Korean vessels have also navigated the passage under the new regime.

Energy markets swung sharply following Trump's remarks. Benchmark one-month Brent crude futures fell 4.95% to $105.76 a barrel. "Investors are keen to gauge whether Washington and Tehran can actually find common ground and reach a peace agreement, with the U.S. stance shifting daily," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities.

Trump faces mounting domestic pressure to end the conflict as soaring energy prices threaten Republican fortunes ahead of November congressional elections. The war killed thousands in Iran during prior U.S.-Israeli operations, while Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed thousands more and displaced hundreds of thousands.